✈️ Flight Delay Prediction

Will a US flight arrive 15+ minutes late? A tuned XGBoost model, predicting at gate pushback, replayed on June 2023: 334,950 flights it never saw during training or tuning.

90.8%Accuracy (June test)

0.943ROC-AUC

0.885Macro-F1

70.7%Baseline: always "on time"

Date (June 2023) Origin airport Carrier Show only mistakes

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Sched	Flight	To	Dep delay	P(delay)	Predicted	Actual

Select a flight

Click a row to see how the model's delay risk changes with departure delay and weather.

Real weather Thunderstorms at both airports Decision threshold

Each curve changes only the departure delay (and, for the orange curve, the weather). Every other input stays at this flight's real values.

How this demo works. The model is a tuned XGBoost classifier trained on Jan–Apr 2023 BTS flights joined with hourly airport weather, using 73 engineered features (time, route & congestion, aircraft rotation, airport state, weather, departure delay). It was tuned on May and evaluated once on June. This page is static: every probability shown, including the what-if curves, was precomputed by the real model for each June flight. It replays held-out 2023 data; it is not a live forecasting service. Code, notebooks and full write-up: github.com/prakash-nitc/FlightDelayPrediction.